ECOASSET SOLUTIONS next webinar istentatively scheduled for August 6th at 12 PM. It is called Energy Finance Programs, A PACE Primer and will feature a general introduction to PACE programming including the Energy Finance Program bill recently passed by the Florida Senate and House of Representatives.
What is global warming and global climate change? Is there a difference?
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Global warming is a term used to describe the average increase in temperature around the globe since the Industrial Revolution. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the average global temperature has increased by 0.74 ± 0.18° Celsius over the last 100 years and the rate of increase has doubled over the last 50 years.
Impacts from global climate change can be seen around the globe. According to IPCC climate experts, land regions are warming faster than the oceans, and arctic temperatures are increasing at almost twice the global average. Due to this variability in observed temperature increases and due to other climate variability, scientists have transitioned away from using the term “global warming” because not all places on the planet will experience the same type and rate of climatic change.
Other observed climatic change impacts include:
The eleven warmest years on record (since 1850) occurred between 1995 and 2006
Increase in precipitation on land above 30° N between 1900 and 2005
Less precipitation and increased drought conditions in the tropics and subtropics
Substantial increase in heavy precipitation events within land regions around the globe
Large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation
Decrease in snow cover in most regions, especially in spring and summer
Spatial variability in freezing and breaking of river and lake ice
What causes climate change? Isn’t climate change a natural process?
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific intergovernmental group that was set up in 1988 to provide policymakers with objective information regarding the causes of climate change. The IPCC published the First Assessment Report in 1990, with subsequent reports published in 1995 (Second Assessment Report (SAR)), 2001 (Third Assessment Report (TAR)), and 2007 (Assessment Report 4 (AR4)). The IPCC is comprised of leading climate change scientists from across the globe with expertise in their respective fields. The IPCC (along with Al Gore) received a Nobel Prize for its groundbreaking work on climate change.
In 2007, the IPCC concluded that the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is “very likely” due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. “Very likely” is strictly defined by the IPCC as having between a 90% and 95% probability of occurring and is based on statistical analysis of the substantial scientific body of evidence.
While it is true that long-term climate change occurs as a result of natural processes, namely changes in solar radiation (i.e., energy from the sun), the earth’s precession (i.e., wobble), and orbital eccentricity (i.e., orbital paths around the sun collectively these natural processes are known as Milankovich cycles). However, computer simulations that model the effect of natural cycles (without anthropogenic, or human-induced, greenhouse gas emissions) on temperature change do not match the observed temperature changes (illustrated in Graph B on the figure). Only when anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are included in the model do the observed patterns match simulated patterns. This is one of the strongest scientific arguments for concluding that an increase in human-induced greenhouse gas emissions is the primary cause of global climate change.
What is a greenhouse gas and how have concentrations changed over time?
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By now, most everyone has heard about the greenhouse effect. However, it often has a negative connotation because it is considered the cause of the global climate change problems we are currently experiencing. However, the greenhouse effect is the natural process by which the earth’s atmosphere traps solar radiation and thus keeps us warm. The problems we are experiencing are due to our activity enhancing this natural effect (see figure caption for a more detailed description).
A greenhouse gas is any gas that has the ability to trap heat in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases include several classes of gas such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, ozone, and non-methane volatile organic compounds. When someone talks about doing a greenhouse gas inventory they generally are addressing the six greenhouse gases quantified in the Kyoto Protocol (i.e., carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride).
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Carbon dioxide is by far the most abundant greenhouse. Its concentration has been extensively measured and tested, both directly and indirectly. Through proxy measurements such as ice core data. Through the various tests available scientists have been able to measure the carbon dioxide concentration in the earth’s atmosphere over the last 400,000 years. Up until the industrial revolution, at no time in the last 400,000 years did the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere exceeded 300 parts per million (ppm). At the beginning of the industrial revolution (late 18th century), the concentration began steadily increasing. By 2008, the average global carbon dioxide concentration was approximately 385 parts per million. That is 28% higher than the highest point reached in this 400,000–year period. It has grown to this new peak level in under 200 years.
What are the sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and what is the globalcontribution from the United States?
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The source of human–induced greenhouse gas emissions can generally be classified into
the following groups:
Stationary combustion sources such as power plants and industrial processes
Indirect energy sources, such as the energy consumed in producing energy
Mobile energy sources such automobiles, airplanes, boats, and rail
Refrigerants
Waste emissions, such as methane from landfills
Agricultural emissions, such as animal-derived methane and nitrogen fertilizers
Emissions released as a result of land use, land use change, and forestry
The United States is responsible for about 1/4 of global greenhouse gas emissions and was only recently overtaken by China in total annual emissions. Between 1990 and 2006, greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. increased by 14.7%. In 2006, the most current inventory year, the majority of these emissions (about 80%) resulted from carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels. By far, the majority of emissions come from the electricity–generating sector, followed by transportation and industry.
If we do nothing, what are the likely consequences of inaction?
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If we do nothing and the scientists were right, then we will need to adapt to the climate change (e.g., rising sea levels, increased flooding and/or drought, and an increase in severe weather events such as heat waves and stronger hurricanes). The IPCC has modeled the impacts of climate change under a variety of global temperatures increases, on water, ecosystems, food, coastal areas, and health.
One line of argument often presented is that even if the science is correct and we are causing increased global warming, we cannot afford to mitigate the problem. The cost of inaction for the state of Florida was recently calculated by Tufts University. The Tuft Study considered impacts of climate change related to the loss of tourism, the effect on real estate, hurricanes, and increased electricity demands. The cost of doing nothing was calculated to be 5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the State of Florida. According to the IPCC, the cost to mitigate climate change has been estimated to be only 0.2 to 2% of gross domestic product (GDP).
The results of this study would indicate that it could be more expensive not to address the problem.
The good news is that we have the technology to address the problem. In general, there are two ways to mitigate climate change:
Reduce emissions – Some large–scale solutions would be to shift from coal to natural gas, increasing fuel efficiencies, and increasing the use of renewable energy (biomass, wind, and solar). However, there are opportunities in all walks of life, from the individual homeowner, to businesses, municipalities and agriculture. Opportunities include improving efficiencies in how you use energy and water, drive your cars, purchase products, handle waste, or even in how you organize corporate meetings and events.
Increase greenhouse gas removals – These solutions would increase carbon sequestered in forests, grasslands, and soils. For example, planting trees or improving the management of existing forests can remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Precision agriculture also provides opportunities to increase soil carbon stored in the soils.
ECO2ASSET SOLUTIONS' mission is to assist critical stakeholders (forestry; municipalities; agriculture; corporations, universities, and utility companies; and carbon credit purchasers) in developing solutions that will not only address global climate change, but will provide economic, environmental, and social benefit. A logical first step is to understand your carbon footprint. This is done by conducting a greenhouse gas inventory. Once you understand your footprint, then you can identify opportunities to reduce your emissions (e.g., reducing electricity consumption) and take action. Side benefits of taking action include saving money and feeling good about making a contribution and addressing the problem.
